Bitcoin: Bottom-ku ma dhacay? 9 Chart Oo Ka Jawaabaya

Bitcoin waxay joogtaa $81,566: 35% ka hooseysa heerkeedii ugu sarreeyay, laakiin 41% ka sarreysa hoostii June. Su'aasha qof walba weydiinayo waa: hoos ma u sii dhici doontaa, mise bull run-ka ayaa soo socda?
Jawaabta gaaban: Xogtu waxay u badan tahay in bottom-ku dhacay June. Laakiin bull run weli ma bilaaban: lacag cusub ayaa maqan, Fed-kuna weli waa caqabad.

Bear market-kii 2025–2026

BTC waxay ka dhacday $126,272 (October 2025) ilaa $57,720 (June 2026): hoos u dhac 54% ah muddo 8 bilood ah. Kadib way soo kabatay, waxayna dib u qabsatay $69,007, oo ahaa heerkii ugu sarreeyay 2021.
BTC Monthly chart

Bottom-ka ma la sameeyay?

Calaamado badan ayaa leh haa. Hoostii June waxay ku dhacday agagaarka 200-week MA ($66,840), kadibna way ka boodday. Fear & Greed Index-kuna wuxuu 6 February gaaray 5, oo ah cabsi aad u daran.
BTC Weekly chart + Moving Averages
Haystayaasha muddada dheer waxay khasaare ku iibinayeen February ilaa August (LTH SOPR ka hooseeya 1). Is-dhiibistaas waxay badanaa la socotaa dhammaadka bear market-ka. Laga bilaabo September, waxay dib ugu laabteen faa'iido.
Long Term Holder SOPR
Qiimeyntu sidoo kale way hooseysaa. Hoosta $57,720 waxay aad ugu dhowayd celceliska qiimaha suuqu ku iibsaday BTC ($52,873). MVRV Z-score, oo cabbira in BTC qaali tahay ama raqiis tahay, wuxuu 2026 hoos ugu dhacay qiyaastii −1.1; hadda waa −0.30, weli ka hooseeya 0.
Ugu dambeyn, lacagta muddada dheer (Long Term Capital Flows, 1 sano) waxay taban noqotay 2026, hadda waxay dib ugu soo laabanaysaa 0. Saddexdii bear market ee hore, isla qaabkaas ayaa calaamadeeyay bottom-ka.
Long Term Capital Flows
Digniin: Hoos u dhaca 2026 wuu ka gaabnaa cycle-yadii hore (MVRV Z-score −1.1, marka loo eego qiyaastii −1.6 ilaa −1.8). Taasi waxay muujin kartaa bear market jilicsan, ama in hoos u dhac kale uu suurtagal yahay. Qiimuhu sidoo kale wuxuu weli ka hooseeyaa 100-week MA ($89,715).

Lacagtu way istaagtay

October (1–16), ETF-yada Bitcoin waxaa ka baxay $614.7 milyan; maalinta ugu xumayd waxay ahayd 7 October (−$484.9 milyan). Wadarta lacagta saafiga ah ee soo gashay tan iyo 2024 waa $56.9 bilyan, oo ka hooseysa heerkeedii ugu sarreeyay (qiyaastii $62 bilyan, September 2025).
Bitcoin ETF Flows (Farside)
Stablecoin-yadu waa $302.34 bilyan, 30-kii maalmood ee u dambeeyayna waxay kordheen 0.54% oo kaliya: lacag cusub oo badan ma soo galayso. Dhanka kale, BTC-da exchanges-ka yaalla waa 2.685 milyan, oo ka hooseysa qiyaastii 2.78 milyan November 2025. Sahaydu way yaraanaysaa; marka lacagtu soo noqoto, waxay la kulmi doontaa sahay yar.

Dareenka suuqa iyo leverage

Fear & Greed waa 49 (dhexdhexaad). Bil ka hor wuxuu ahaa 73, August-na wuxuu gaaray 82. Rabitaankii xad-dhaafka ahaa waa la tirtiray iyadoo aan argagax dhicin. Funding rate-ka BTC waa 0.0058%: togan laakiin hooseeya, exchange kastana ma taban. Taasi waxay muujinaysaa in aysan jirin leverage xad-dhaaf ah.
Fear & Greed + Funding Rates

Caqabadda weyn: Fed-ka

Rate-ka Fed-ku hadda waa 3.75–4.00%. Kulanka 28 October, suuqu wuxuu filayaa 84.5% in aan waxba la beddelin. Laakiin kulanka 9 December, wuxuu filayaa 89% kordhin. Sicir-bararku waa 3.7% (core 2.6%; farqiga waxaa keena tamarta iyo cuntada). 10-year yield-ku waa 5.08%, sanad ka hor wuxuu ahaa qiyaastii 4%. Doollarka (DXY 101.78) wuxuu ku dhow yahay heerkiisii ugu sarreeyay 52 toddobaad (102.95). Interest sare iyo doollar xooggan waxay caadi ahaan culeeyaan Bitcoin.
CME FedWatch ( 9 December )

Maxaa la filayaa?

Heerarka muhiimka ah waa moving averages-ka toddobaadlaha ah:
  • $89,715 (100-week MA): caqabadda. Xiritaan toddobaadle ah oo ka sarreeya waa calaamadda bull run-ka.
  • $76,537 (50-week MA): taageerada koowaad.
  • $71,510 (20-week MA) iyo $69,007 (ATH 2021): taageerada labaad.
  • $66,840 (200-week MA): taageerada ugu muhiimsan, halkaas oo hoosta June ka dhacday.
Qiyaasteenna (ra'yi, maaha xog): xaaladda ugu suurtagalsan waa range u dhexeeya $71,510 iyo $89,715 ilaa dhammaadka sannadka. Haddii sicir-bararku qaboobo oo ETF-yadu soo noqdaan, jebinta $89,715 ayaa suurtagal ah. Haddii Fed-ku la yaab xun keeno, $69,007 iyo $66,840 ayaa la tijaabin karaa. Taariikhaha la daawado: 28 October (Fed), 10 November (sicir-barar) iyo 9 December (Fed).

Gabagabo

Sahayda cusub ee Bitcoin weligeed sidan uma yarayn: sicir-bararkeedu waa 0.87% sannadkii, oo ka hooseeya dahabka (1.47%). Laakiin halving-ku keligiis ma wado qiimaha: kor u kaca market cap-ka ee halving kasta ka dambeeyay wuu yaraanayay cycle kasta.
Asset Annual Supply Growth (Bitcoin vs Dahab)
Bitcoin waxay ka baxday hoostii bear market-ka, laakiin weli ma gelin bull run. Sahayda exchanges-ka ayaa yaraanaysa, leverage-kuna ma badna, laakiin lacag cusub (ETF + stablecoins) iyo Fed jilicsan ayaa maqan.
Ogow: bottom macnaheedu maaha in qiimuhu isla markiiba kor u kacayo. Chart-yada MVRV Z-score iyo Capital Flows waxay muujinayaan in bottom-yadii hore ay ku xigeen bilo soo kabasho ah ka hor intaan bull run-ku si buuxda u bilaabmin.
Aragti ahaan: Bottom-ku wuxuu u badan yahay inuu dhacay, dulqaad ayaa furaha ah, bull run-kuna wuxuu sugayaa Fed-ka.
Maaha talo maaliyadeed. Xogta: 16–18 October 2026.
Ilaha: TradingView (Bitstamp), Farside Investors, DefiLlama, CryptoQuant, woocharts (Willy Woo, xogta Glassnode), CoinMarketCap, CoinGlass, CME FedWatch, CNBC, DXY iyo Trading Economics.

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